“Novaya Gazeta Europe” reports that the United Russia party’s result, cleaned of fraud, is 1.7 times lower than the officially announced figure, 34% instead of almost 58%.
Journalists refer to a method developed by physicist Sergei Shpilkin, in which the share of real votes can be calculated knowing the distribution of votes for different parties based on turnout and the result.
“Honest polling stations should form a uniform ‘core’ in such a distribution, while polling stations with fraud form the so‑called ‘comet’s tail,’” the publication states, presenting the corresponding graph with this “tail.”
“This year, the core of honest polling stations is at the 34 % mark for votes for United Russia, the graph shows that the distribution of the result and turnout forms a uniform cloud with its center at this point. It is likely that the result without fraud would have been exactly this.”
It is clarified that the calculation assumes that the votes for all parties except United Russia are fair, and the result for the winning party should depend on the turnout in a similar way.
Two electoral experts agreed with the calculations of Novaya gazeta Europe. We excluded Moscow from the analysis (most voters there voted via electronic means, so the statistics for paper voting are significantly different), as well as several regions where we suspect mass cases where votes for other parties were counted as votes for United Russia (polling stations in these regions are marked in gray),” the authors add, promising to provide a detailed report on the statistical anomalies in the State Duma elections in the coming days.
According to the official data from the CEC, after processing 96.95% of the protocols, United Russia received 57.83% of the votes, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation received 13.76%, the LDPR received 9.01%, and New People received 7.96%. In the morning, A Just Russia did not clear the 5% threshold. Later, the CEC announced that the party had nevertheless overcome the 5%
Earlier, ASTRA reported that in Moscow, people were forced to vote via electronic voting system polling stations. Kadyrov is receiving 99.85% of the votes in the Chechen head of state elections.
Yabloko is making it into the Novgorod Regional Duma. United Russia will have the largest faction in the State Duma in its history. The official turnout was a record 59.32%. According to the head of the CEC, only two cases of ballot stuffing have been recorded across the entire Russian Federation.
“The percentage of reports about violations is minimal — if you look at the numbers, there won’t even be a hundredth of a percent across 91,000 election commissions! This is many times less than what was reported during the 2021 elections,” the CEC website quotes Ella Pamfilova as saying.
Analyst Boris Ovchinnikov, in a conversation with ASTRA, estimated the share of fraud in the votes for United Russia at approximately 55%.
The leader of the “New People” party acknowledged the contribution of Yabloko supporters to his party’s success and thanked the Russians who left for their support.
The head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, promised sanctions against those who organized voting in the territories of Ukraine occupied by the Russian Federation and ran candidates there.
